ACTIVE MARKET THESIS · ADW/2026
AI may be becoming an abundance problem.
This desk tracks the widening gap between how quickly intelligence can be produced and how quickly companies can put it to productive use.
RESEARCH LIBRARY
Two briefs. One cost curve.
A deliberately small research set—each brief is built around a decision, not a news cycle.
The short-term inference glut
Effective AI supply can rise faster than organizations can absorb it—even if token demand grows tenfold.
What would Ox Alpha’s free flood cost Google?
A cache-aware cost model for 100 trillion tokens a day—and why the identity question matters less than the serving economics.
THE CONNECTING IDEA
Count useful work, not just tokens.
A token is not a fixed unit of compute or value. Architecture, cache reuse, active parameters, retries, and task success determine the economic result. The research separates published facts from modeled assumptions so the conclusion can change when the inputs do.
Read the market thesis